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钢材期货天地

商品期货,魅力无穷

 
 
 

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11.2日评:沪钢突破阻力,拉开上涨序幕  

2010-11-02 08:18:07|  分类: 每日行情分析 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

螺纹钢主力RB1105今开盘4520,最高4562,最低4519,报收于4553/吨,涨1.29%,全日成交169.8万手,持仓增加15.9万手至110.1万手。

 

宝钢股份副总经理兼董秘陈缨在昨天举行的三季度网上业绩说明会上预计,四季度国内钢材供需关系保持平稳,但钢材价格大幅上涨的动力不足,与此同时,矿石长协价格有所下降,但仍处历史高位。

 

原本一年一议的铁矿石价格本已因定价体系的更迭而不再需要谈判桌,但在上周五中钢协举行的季度运行发布会上,中钢协常务副会长罗冰生透露,2011年度的铁矿石谈判已经开始。矿山代表认为,虽然许多大型铁矿项目目前都在投建之中,但到真正达产还需要较长时间,无法在短期内让供应明显增加。此外,矿山方面认为,全球经济不会有二次探底,美国、欧洲以及日韩等国的经济恢复进程尚未结束,发展中国家如印度和中国的钢铁需求也会继续上升。

 

中国宏观经济政策或在2011年变调——积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策走向积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。这一变化的关键在于货币政策从适度宽松走向稳健,意即紧货币、宽财政的基调或许成为2011年宏观经济政策的主基调。

 

昨日沪钢高开高走,RB1105合约尾盘站稳4450/吨上方,基本面来看,明年一季度铁矿石价格谈判拉开序幕,矿山仍然称供应紧张。昨日世博会正式结束,下游开工量明显增加以及交通管制的随之结束,商家对市场需求还抱有一丝希望。另外焦炭市场指导价格在10月的基础上有所上调,二级冶金焦出厂指导价上调100/吨至1850/吨。后期成本或将支撑价位小幅上行。加之沙钢、永刚等11月上旬出厂价格的纷纷上调,市场整体保持良好的上涨态势。操作上建议多头依然持有,多头行情还远没有结束,RB1105合约止损上移至4480/吨。

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